Week 15 coronavirus update – online assessment, new information

An online tool to assess your risk of getting and transmitting COVID-19

This site, https://your-covid-19-risk.com/, gives a non-identifying list of questions designed to assess your risk of getting and spreading the disease.

The results are interesting but do not tell anything more than you may already know. It does collect your answers for later analysss, but there is no identifying information submitted. So, for the sake of someone(s) doing research, I would encourage everyone to participate.

Here are my results:

Interesting observations from various analyses so far of the COVID-19 pandemic

• Out of 200,000 tests in Colorado only 300 more tested positive than were previously known. This tells me that the virus in Colorado is not gone, but greatly reduced in its presence in the population. As of the Denver Post, that means that 28,500 out of over 200,000 tests have tested positive. This number is from testing starting about April 1, 2020.
• That means that about 14% of us in Colorado have tested positive so far over the last two months of those who have been tested. Of the 5.75 million people in Colorado, this statistic means that less than 1% of Colorado has been tested as of June 2, 2020.
• A study in Singapore showed that no one was contagious after 10 days of onset of symptoms. This is interesting, as some may test positive by nasal swab after that time, but they appear not to be contagious 10 or more days of the onset of their symptoms.
• Masks make a difference, particularly in the home when someone is ill with COVID-19.
• Everyone who gets ill with COVID-19 makes antibodies that are protective against re-infection. How long that immunity lasts is unknown, but speculation ranges from 1-7 years.
• A temperature of 133 degrees Fahrenheit kills the virus. So leave your car in the sun if you have transported someone whose adherence to current recommendations is unknown. Ford has made specially equipped police vehicles that heat to 133+ degrees between shifts, so police can disinfect their vehicles.
• Seven states account for 2/3 of US deaths. 40% of all deaths are from long term care facilities. The data in Colorado places long term care facility deaths at closer to 55% of the deaths in Colorado.
• Interesting data about physical distance from someone who is ill with COVID-19 and your risk of getting the illness. If you are within 3 feet of that person, you are at 13% risk of getting the illness. At 3-6 feet that risk drops to 3%. For every 3 feet past 6 feet your risk drops in half again. So 6-9 feet you are at 1.5% risk, and 9-12 feet 0.75% risk. Wearing a face mask is associated with a 3% risk. Not wearing a face mask is a 17% risk.
• 20% of people account for 80% of the spread of this disease.
• A genetic analysis of ongoing infections in Italy suggests that the virus is mutating into a less virulent form. (The validity of this information is to interpreted very cautiously. It is interesting none the less.)

Dr. Gipson