Week 12.5 coronavirus update – a perspective, food, air-borne particles, travel

A perspective on the pandemic

A report today says that there are now 5 million cases of COVID-19 identified in the world. We know that not everyone who has gotten the disease has been tested. Estimates I have seen range from 5-20 times more people have had the disease than have been tested.

So, if 10 times more people have had the disease than were tested, that means about 50 million people have had the disease.

If 20 times more people have had the disease than were tested, that means about 100 million people have had the disease.

1% of the world population is 76 million people.

According to the herd immunity theory, 70% of a population must become immune to an infectious organism before that illness becomes a sporadic illness. We are not even close to that 70% number with COVID-19.

Should I Rinse That First? 8 Food-Prep Do’s and Don’ts

Here’s a link to a great article about food prep. This is a good reminder as things have gotten a bit exaggerated during these COVID times.

An interesting study about water droplets in the air from someone speaking loudly

By using lasers, scientists found that one minute of talking loudly can produce water droplets that could linger in the air for 8-14 minutes, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

The practical problem with the study is that the test subjects talked “loudly” into a box.

What this study really shows is that you should not talk into the other end of a box from someone with COVID-19.

This also points out that doing good research may not provide practical and usable clinical information. I don’t know many of us who communicate by talking into one end of a box and listening through the other. It did however show that certain lasers can count air droplet particles in a closed and stagnant air environment.

90% of infections appear to come from close contact with others

As mentioned previously, an analysis from a reasonably reliable source states that 90% of infections have come from close contact with infected individuals. Public transportation, public and private events, close living situations (both home and socially, like crowded cities), healthcare environments with direct contact with infected individuals were cited as locations and events to consider avoiding going forward.

This information will undoubtedly be used to inform those making policy about opening the economy and the ongoing need for social distancing.

More on the ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19

Two new studies in The BMJ found hydroxychloroquine didn’t significantly reduce ICU admission or death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with pneumonia, nor did it help mild-to-moderate cases recover any faster than did standard of care.

Travel-related outbreaks in China

With more than 40 new cases in the last week, a province in northern China is now witnessing a surge in travel-related COVID-19 cases after lifting restrictions. This is really not surprising as one person appears to have brought the disease from Wuhan China to Iran, where it spread very rapidly.

This will likely provide information to those making policy about how travel opens up in the the US.

Dr. Gipson