new CDC estimates…
The CDC “is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.” The agency also “says its ‘best estimate’ is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have [COVID-19] will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.” The CDC “cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about [COVID-19], and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes.”
The interesting parts of that statement are first that the anticipated death rate is so low, and secondly the contagion rate is so high before people know they are ill.
The statement “about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic” is puzzling. Perhaps it means that people have the infection before they have symptoms. It is certainly known that the 24 hours before someone becomes ill through the next 6 days are the highest times of contagion.
More data about hydroxychloroquine
It still shows no benefit. In a larger study of 15,000+ hospitalized individuals, those taking the medication actually had a slightly higher mortality rate than those who did not take the drug.
Does it help if taken early in the course of the illness? No answers on this so far. Studies are underway.
Would I take it? No.
Vaccine updates
Although a long way from proving to be a solution, several early vaccine studies are showing promise…at least in the test tube. As mentioned before, there are about 100 different vaccine candidates in various stages of testing.
The vaccines with published data have for the most part been safe without any reported life-threatening side effects. In the recent Moderna trial 3 out of 45 participants had severe systemic symptoms lasting 1-2 days that then resolved, apparently without consequence.
This information is from preliminary work to see if the vaccine is safe in humans and elicits an antibody response similar to getting the illness.
Later studies will involve larger groups of people and seeing if it does more good than harm by preventing infection.
We’ll have to wait a while for those answers.
Vitamins and minerals for COVID-19?
According to a recent review published in Annals of Pharmacotherapy, there is a lack of evidence supporting the safety and efficacy of any supplement for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19.
This is a classic statement of lack of evidence. There is no evidence. So to say, “Yes they help!” or, “No they don’t!” cannot be supported by any good clinical evidence, because there is no evidence one way or the other.
The statement issued in the publication was apparently directed at celebrities and other higher profile individuals endorsing various vitamin, supplement, and mineral preparations for profit.
There’s lots of theoretical evidence that they may help. Unfortunately theory does not always translate into good clinical medicine or even good advice for that matter.
Face masks
White House Coronavirus Task Force Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx says there is clear evidence that wearing a mask helps mitigate virus spread.
We used to scoff at wearing face masks in flu season or other outbreaks, saying it only prevented the sick person from infecting those around them. Frankly that statement falls in the category of “there is no evidence.”
The International Journal of Nursing Studies published a review on April 30, 2020 that supported, but did not conclusively prove, that using face masks in healthcare and community settings reduced spread of infections and COVID-19.
I suspect we will become much more familiar with having a face mask available for the rest of this epidemic and even flu seasons to come when in public and crowded places.
The next big thing will be…
what happens as we begin to socialize and ignore social distancing recommendations. More reports are coming out about group gatherings with subsequent outbreaks and deaths. I suspect the rate of further spread of this virus in the US will depend on how many of us throw caution to the wind and return to life as it was in 2019.
Dr. Gipson
