Basic Biology 101: When a new virus enters the human population , the majority must become immune to it before the epidemic subsides. In the specific case of the current coronavirus epidemic, this means that we all will have to either get infected or immunized (against the coronavirus) before the frequency of infections drop substantially so that it becomes a less common or “background” illness. This would likely take 2-3 years for the majority of the population to develop immunity.
The virus will most likely continue to circulate around the world on a long-term basis, like the influenza virus. We will have to see if it continues to mutate like the influenza virus. If it doesn’t, then it will become a much less frequent illness as humans become immune to it.
At present we also don’t know how long the immunity lasts in individuals who have had this illness, but we hope it will be decades like many other viruses.
No infectious disease, public health professional, or virologist think that this coronavirus epidemic will subside in warmer weather. The influenza virus is more prevalent in colder times, because humans huddle together more during those times, not because of ambient temperature changes. The current opinion is that once the epidemic settles down, coronavirus MAY follow a seasonal pattern. However this is purely conjecture and based on a large number of factors that may or may not be accurate.
Unfortunately there will be no simple and quick solutions to this epidemic, unless a treatment and effective, long-lasting vaccine is developed. Thankfully there are massive research efforts ongoing, and I remain hopeful for these developments.
As a vocabulary reminder, SARS-Co2 (or SARS-CoV-2) is the virus causing the illness COVID-19. Nasal and throat swabs test for the virus, SARS-Co2. So IF you have symptoms consistent with the infection and have a positive test, you have COVID-19. IF you test positive but are not sick, then you are a carrier and can transmit the virus to others. BE CAREFUL and isolate yourself for at least 2 weeks and stay in touch with your PCP to determine when you are safe to be in public!!
The term, COVID-19, appears to be used routinely without differentiating between just having the virus in your nasal passage and getting sick from it. This will be an important distinction as we go forward, as not everyone with the virus in their nasal passage will get sick from it.
Hopefully in the US we will be able to do more mass testing to know who has the virus and who doesn’t and that may provide greater discrimination to who needs to be quarantined and who doesn’t. From a purely medical perspective, EVERYONE should be tested routinely until this epidemic settles down.
So in the meantime, stay at home, wash your hands regularly, and avoid other people. And call me if you have concerns that you may have the illness.
Dr. Gipson
Thank you Dr. Gipson, we are in Denver, doing well, so far so good. We pray that you, family, and staff are safe and healthy too. We will stay connected on your newsletter and updates. God bless.
God bless you and yours!
Thank you Dr. Gipson…It’s good to read information you can trust.
Thank you!
Thank you Dr Gipson for giving just the facts. So appreciate this reliable source to understand what is going on. We hope and pray that you and staff stay safe.